Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

As the effects of climate change become more apparent, understanding and preparing for climate change has become a priority for natural resource management. Implementing management strategies to deal with climate change requires knowledge of which ecological communities and species will be most affected or vulnerable and why. A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) is one tool to aid natural resource managers in this process.


What is a CCVA?
A CCVA is an assessment of the likelihood that projected climatic shifts in precipitation, temperature and other factors will have adverse or beneficial impacts on a given natural or cultural resource (e.g., species, habitat, or ecosystem; sacred sites, archeological artifacts) (Glick and Stein 2010, IPCC 2007). A CCVA essentially determines “vulnerability” of specific resources to these climatic shifts or associated changes.

 

Vulnerability is defined as the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes (IPCC 2007 as cited in Glick and Stein 2010). The IPCC defines vulnerability as a function of three main concepts: the sensitivity of a particular system to climate changes, its exposure to those changes, and its capacity to adapt to those changes (IPCC 2007). Sensitivity is a measure of whether and how a species or system is likely to be affected by a given change in climate. Exposure is a measure of how much of a change in climate and associated problems a species or system is likely to experience. Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of system/species to cope with sensitivity and exposure with minimal disruption.

 

A CCVA makes two essential contributions to natural and cultural resource management. First, the assessment helps identify which resources are most vulnerable or most resilient to estimated climate changes. This is a determination that enables managers to better set priorities for conservation action. Second, a CCVA can uncover why resources are vulnerable or resilient; what are the characteristics of the resource that make it more vulnerable or allow it to better cope with climatic shifts or the associated changes? This understanding would provide managers with a basis for developing appropriate management responses.


Role of CCVAs in Adaptation Planning
What CCVAs do…

  • They can help build an understanding of the relative susceptibility of natural and cultural resources to likely future impacts of climate change. This helps managers understand what they may be faced with in light of climate shifts.
  • By highlighting the levels and sources of vulnerability of resources, CCVAs provide insights into which existing management actions may still make sense in the climate change context, as well as provide information that can be used to design adaptive management strategies that help reduce sensitivity or exposure.  

What CCVAs don’t do…

  • They do not dictate what conservation priorities should be for a particular park; that is the job of the managers.
  • They do not provide an estimate of extinction risk or provide the sole basis for determining whether a species or habitat ought to receive protection under ESA

Currently, GSS is conducting a CCVA for Badlands National Park. Click here to visit the Badlands CCVA Project Page.